The US stock market ended November on a softer footing than history would typically suggest, with the S&P 500 down by 0.6% over the month as of Friday.
The decline places the benchmark index on course for its weakest November showing since 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data, marking an atypical break from a month that has historically been one of the strongest for equities.
The muted performance reflected a market increasingly divided between standout winners in healthcare and commodities, and sharp pullbacks in technology and high-growth consumer names.
While some stocks delivered sizeable gains in an otherwise difficult month, others saw deep losses as uncertainty over the durability of the artificial intelligence boom and rising capital expenditure needs weighed heavily on sentiment.
Lithium and drugmakers lead the November outperformers
Albemarle Corp, the world’s largest lithium producer, emerged as the month’s best-performing S&P 500 stock, jumping nearly 30% by Friday morning.
The rally came despite ongoing questions over the trajectory of electric vehicle demand, as lithium prices stabilised following reduced supply from a mine shutdown earlier this year by China’s CATL.
The interruption helped drive prices higher, providing a buffer against softer automotive markets and lifting miners more broadly.
The month also belonged to healthcare, a sector that benefited both from defensiveness and momentum-driven investor flows.
Eli Lilly surged 26.5%, becoming the first pharmaceutical company to cross a $1 trillion market capitalisation.
Investor enthusiasm intensified after the Trump administration reached a deal allowing Medicare reimbursement for GLP-1 weight-loss medicines — a major milestone for adoption and affordability.
Solventum and Merck followed closely.
Solventum, a recent spin-off from 3M, gained over 24% after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and outlining a plan to cut $500 million in costs.
Merck rose 22.4% after promising trial data for two heart medicines — one lowering LDL cholesterol and another showing benefit in heart failure.
Positive clinical milestones helped reassure investors that the company’s late-stage pipeline remains robust.
Logistics company Expeditors International rounded out the top five, climbing 21% on better-than-expected quarterly profit.
Earnings of $1.64 per share significantly outpaced analyst expectations, signalling operational resilience amid weaker freight volumes.
Tech and consumer names fall sharply as spending fears rise
At the other end of the index, several high-growth companies bore the brunt of investor caution.
Super Micro Computer sank 36% after missing on first-quarter earnings and issuing a mixed forecast, deepening concerns tied to governance and internal controls highlighted by auditors earlier this year.
Despite being central to AI server buildouts, the company struggled to reassure markets that its near-term trajectory remained intact.
Axon Enterprises dropped 27% after posting record quarterly revenue but failing to meet earnings expectations.
Tariffs and elevated product investment weighed on margins, raising questions about cost efficiency heading into 2026.
Oracle suffered a 24% decline, pressured by concerns that its debt load — already above $100 billion — may rise further as it invests in data centre expansion to support AI infrastructure contracts.
The company’s spending trajectory amplified investor unease over whether AI demand will grow quickly enough to offset financing risks.
Delivery platform DoorDash slipped nearly 23% following soft quarterly results and plans to increase investment substantially in 2026.
Still, shares remain higher year-to-date, reflecting long-term optimism for the firm’s reach across logistics services.
Digital ad platform The Trade Desk fell 22% as investors questioned competitive positioning and rising capital expenditure, overshadowing earnings that otherwise beat estimates.
Seasonal optimism tested as AI uncertainty clouds outlook
The weak November performance challenges one of the market’s most persistent seasonal patterns.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has historically risen 1.5% in December on average, trailing only November as the strongest month of the calendar year, according to CFRA Research.
Yet traders this time are approaching the final stretch of 2025 with greater caution as valuation pressures collide with high expectations around AI.
Market strategists note that a year-end rally now appears fragile.
In a Bloomberg report, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research has suggested that reaching 7,000 on the S&P 500 before December closes is unlikely, citing profit-taking in AI-linked stocks.
Dennis Debusschere of 22V Research warned that uncertainty over AI monetisation, financing risk and elevated valuations may cap upside into year-end.
Still, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic.
JPMorgan highlighted that in years where the index gained more than 10% through September but fell in November, December has historically delivered a positive return every time since 1950.
The bank’s global markets team maintains a tactically bullish stance — pointing to resilient corporate earnings, easing trade tensions and healthy macroeconomic indicators.
Looking ahead to 2026 as forecasts stretch higher
Even as short-term sentiment cools, longer-term Wall Street forecasts point to potential strength into 2026.
Deutsche Bank this week projected the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by the end of that year, supported by strong earnings growth, share buybacks, and ongoing investor inflows.
HSBC and JPMorgan set price targets of 7,500, with upside to 8,000 if monetary easing continues, while Morgan Stanley expects a 2026 finish near 7,800, citing what it calls a newly established bull market.
As December trading begins, investors face a split-screen market — one where mixed November returns leave room for both caution and opportunity.
Whether history holds will depend heavily on corporate spending, the path of AI profitability, and the willingness of investors to continue backing one of the most expensive equity cycles in a decade.
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