“The idea of AI taking your job seems very academic — until it doesn’t,” says Karthik Shetty, who was recently laid off by an IT giant in Bengaluru, India’s technology hub.
No one will ever officially tell you that you’re being replaced by AI. But that is the reality. Many entry-level coding jobs are gradually becoming irrelevant because AI can now do this work faster and more efficiently.
Across the world in Bali, freelance creative designer Rachel Simmons has seen the same dynamic play out — not through mass layoffs but through ‘silent compression’ of work and headcount.
“AI is replacing a lot of work that once needed hours of manual effort. That’s just a fact,” she says.
Projects that earlier required at least 10 people can now be done with five. Tasks like photo and video editing, content refinement, and even basic project management — AI has simplified all of it. In that context, it’s definitely taking away jobs.
Stories like these explain why the question heading into 2026 — will AI really take your job? — has moved beyond futurist speculation into an urgent, personal debate.
From corporate boardrooms and government policy circles to dinner-table conversations, artificial intelligence is no longer an abstract productivity tool.
It is a force reshaping who gets hired, who doesn’t, and how much human labour is still needed to get work done.
One of the most sobering voices amplifying these concerns is Geoffrey Hinton, often called the “godfather of AI.”
He has warned that 2026 could mark the beginning of what he describes as a “jobless boom”, as AI systems displace tasks once considered secure.
Yet even as such warnings gain attention, other economists and labour experts caution that the scale and timing of disruption remain uncertain — likely to arrive unevenly, hitting some sectors hard while leaving others largely intact.
Why 2026 feels like a turning point?
Nobel Prize winner Hinton told CNN that AI — already handling routine work such as call-centre tasks — is improving rapidly and may be able to replace many other jobs by 2026.
He said today’s models are tackling projects that used to take human teams weeks or months and warned that, if the trend continues, “there’ll be very few people needed” in some technical roles.
That warning has fueled headlines suggesting AI might soon replace millions of jobs.
In the US and other advanced economies, some analysts have interpreted macro labour data as consistent with a softening job market, influenced by automation and AI adoption.
Over 112,000 employees were laid off in 2025 across 218 companies, according to layoffs.fyi.
A Fortune analysis highlighted rising corporate profitability coinciding with stagnant employment growth, coining the idea of a “jobless profit boom” where productivity gains accrue to capital rather than labour.
Yet Hinton’s prognosis, while influential, is not universally accepted as inevitable.
Many economists and researchers emphasise that technological adoption typically unfolds over decades, not months, and that job displacement and creation often occur in waves rather than sudden bursts.
“When the personal computer started to arrive in the 70s, people said it was going to put people out of work, and it absolutely did. But what we also saw was that it created far more jobs than it ever replaced,” says Professor John Murray, Academic Dean of the Faculty of Business and Technology at the University of Sunderland.
AI is going to replace jobs but also create new opportunities that we have never thought of – jobs that we don’t yet know exist.
What the data say so far?
Most empirical indicators in 2025 show AI reshaping tasks rather than triggering mass layoffs.
An MIT study estimated AI can perform tasks equivalent to 11.7% of US labour, while Stanford data recorded a 16% relative employment decline for early-career workers (aged 22–25) in AI-exposed roles such as software engineering, customer support and marketing; older professionals and roles requiring human interaction held steadier.
In the UK, an NFER report forecasts that up to 3 million low-skilled jobs could disappear by 2035 because of AI and automation, even as the economy may add jobs, favouring highly skilled workers.
Where is AI most likely to touch jobs in 2026?
It is a question of task vulnerability vs. job replacement.
For example, Microsoft researchers analysed workplace interactions with AI tools and identified 40 occupations where AI may perform many core tasks, particularly those involving language, data synthesis and routine analysis — from translators and historians to customer service reps and technical writers.
But Microsoft’s own clarification to its research emphasised that high “AI applicability” does not equate to imminent job loss — it simply signals where AI can be most useful or impactful.
Jobs most vulnerable to AI centre on repeatable cognitive tasks like routine data entry, basic coding and administrative work, where tools excel at efficiency gains.
Expert forecasts diverge sharply.
HR surveys show 89% of leaders expect AI to redefine jobs next year, prioritising AI-savvy hires.
But the gradualist view prevails among labour economists.
Glassdoor’s Chris Martin notes “very scant evidence that AI has replaced workers in 2025,” blaming economic headwinds instead.
Martha Gimbel, co-founder and executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, said in a recent interview: “It would be unprecedented if a new technology [like AI] had massively disrupted the workforce in three years. These kinds of things take time. Companies and people have to figure out how to use it.”
The transition now underway is large — and for many workers, deeply confusing. As Simmons adds,
“For most people, AI doesn’t arrive as a headline or a policy debate. It shows up quietly — fewer emails to answer, a task that takes half the time, or a role that suddenly feels less essential than it did a year ago.”
Jobs with lower immediate risk
Jobs that depend on complex human judgment, empathy, physical dexterity, creativity, and deep domain expertise are far less likely to be replaced in 2026.
Caregiving, education, skilled trades, healthcare professionals, therapists, and many creative roles remain comparatively resilient — at least in the near term.
Grace Herring, a London-based physiotherapist, says, “If your job depends on trust, touch, or nuanced decision-making, AI is still more assistant than replacement.”
History offers a useful parallel. ATMs didn’t eliminate bank tellers; they changed the job, shifting focus toward higher-value customer interactions.
AI may do something similar across industries, reshaping tasks rather than erasing entire professions.
“The work doesn’t disappear,” Herring argues. “It just stops looking the way it used to.”
Corporate strategy and policy are already shifting
The expectation of AI-driven change has begun to reshape decision-making at the highest levels.
- Workforce reskilling: Employers and governments are ramping up upskilling initiatives to close AI literacy gaps as digital competence becomes a baseline requirement.
- Policy responses: Central banks and fiscal authorities are examining how AI-led productivity gains could slow job creation and affect wages, tax revenues, and employment metrics. Some analysts have even warned that widespread displacement could accelerate Social Security depletion if payroll contributions fall.
- Ethical governance: As capital owners capture a growing share of AI-generated gains while wages stagnate, calls are growing for stronger labour protections, universal basic income pilots, and incentives for more humane AI deployment.
Not a simple yes or no
So, will AI really take your job in 2026? The most honest answer is not necessarily, but it will almost certainly change how your job is done.
AI’s impact is conditional:
- Some roles will see significant task automation, reducing demand for predictable human labour.
- Others will experience augmentation, increasing demand for workers who can collaborate effectively with machines.
- Many jobs will evolve rather than vanish, with employers valuing adaptability and hybrid skill sets more than static experience.
By late 2025, labour data suggested only modest direct job losses attributable to AI, with broader economic forces still dominant. Yet the direction of travel is clear.
As Rachel Simmons put it, “AI isn’t a single moment of disruption — it’s a slow, grinding redefinition of work.”
For people like Shetty and millions of others navigating this shift, the change is already tangible.
How workers, companies and policymakers act now — through targeted reskilling, strategic workforce planning and responsible governance — will decide whether AI becomes a destabilising force or a generational opportunity in 2026 and beyond.
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