BlackRock backs Ethereum gatekeeping tokenization even though its market share is under threat

BlackRock’s 2026 Thematic Outlook put Ethereum at the center of its tokenization thesis, asking whether the network could serve as a “toll road.”

BlackRock stated that “of tokenized assets 65%+ are on Ethereum.”

The framing pushes Ethereum into an infrastructure role rather than a directional call on ETH. A “toll road” model depends on where issuance, settlement and fee payment occur when real-world assets and tokenized cash move onchain.

BlackRock noted stablecoin transaction volume is adjusted to “strip out inorganic activity (e.g., bots),” citing Coin Metrics and Allium via the Visa Onchain Analytics dashboard.

That caveat narrows the metrics investors may rely on when translating tokenization “activity” into economic throughput.

Ethereum’s share is a moving target

A late-January market check shows why the “65%+” figure should be treated as point-in-time.

RWA.xyz’s directory view put Ethereum’s tokenized RWA market share at 59.84%, with total value around $12.8 billion at retrieval on Jan. 22.

RWA.xyz’s networks view also shows Ethereum leading by value, including a total value (excluding stablecoins) of $13,433,002,447, with the table time-stamped around Jan. 21.

The spread between those readings and BlackRock’s Jan. 5 figure leaves room for share drift.

That drift can come as issuance expands to other chains and as reporting windows change.

For ETH holders, the forward-looking issue is less whether institutions tokenize assets and more whether tokenization routes fee-paying settlement through ETH-bearing paths.

BlackRock’s thesis leans toward Ethereum as a base layer for tokenized assets. Yet a base-layer role can be diluted if execution shifts to rollups or if tokenized funds are distributed across multiple L1s where users do not touch ETH.

Rollups and fee paths complicate the “toll road” thesis

L2BEAT’s rollup summary shows large pools of value already “secured” by leading Ethereum rollups.

Arbitrum One is listed at $17.52 billion, Base at $12.94 billion, and OP Mainnet at $2.33 billion, each labeled Stage 1.

That architecture can preserve Ethereum’s settlement role while shifting where users pay fees day to day.

Rollup execution economics and fee assets vary by design, and that difference matters for fee capture even if Ethereum remains the underlying security layer.

Tokenized cash may become a major throughput driver in tokenization portfolios, and it comes with clearer scenario math.

Citi’s stablecoin report modeled 2030 issuance at $1.9 trillion in a base case and $4.0 trillion in a bull case.

It paired those balances with a 50x velocity assumption to model roughly $100 trillion and $200 trillion in transaction activity, respectively.

The mechanical implication is that even modest market-share changes in settlement networks can matter if activity scales to those levels.

Measurement methodology becomes central if investors try to infer fee generation from raw on-chain flows.

Stablecoin “noise,” multi-chain products and the single-ledger debate

Visa has argued stablecoin transfer volumes contain “noise.”

In an example, Visa said last-30-days stablecoin volume falls from $3.9 trillion to $817.5 billion after removing inorganic activity.

BlackRock’s tokenization slide references the same concept of stripping bots, tying its narrative to a narrower definition of economic use.

If the “toll road” is meant to be monetized through settlement, the investable variable is organic settlement demand that cannot be cheaply replicated elsewhere, not headline transfer counts.

Multi-chain distribution already appears in institutional product design, which complicates any linear “tokenization equals ETH demand” argument.

BlackRock’s tokenized fund BUIDL is available on seven blockchains, with cross-chain interoperability enabled by Wormhole.

This supports a survival path for non-Ethereum chains as distribution and venue-specific utility layers, even if Ethereum retains a lead in issuance value or settlement credibility.

A separate strand of the debate has focused on whether institutional tokenization ends in one common ledger.

During Davos week, that theme circulated on social media through posts featuring remarks from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

World Economic Forum materials published this month support broader claims about tokenization benefits, including fractionalization and faster settlement themes.

However, the WEF stops short of validating that verbatim “single blockchain” language in its digital assets outlook for 2026 and tokenization explainer video.

For Ethereum’s decentralization thesis, the investable tension is whether a base layer can remain neutral as tokenization becomes tied to large issuers and regulated venues.

“Transparency” claims depend on credible resistance to unilateral change and on settlement finality that downstream layers inherit.

Today, L2BEAT’s stage framework and value-secured data show rollups scaling under Ethereum’s security umbrella, while BUIDL’s multi-chain rollout shows major issuers also reducing platform concentration risk.

BlackRock’s “toll road” slide set a dated market-share marker at 65%+.

Late-January RWA dashboards and multi-chain product releases showed the near-term battlefield is share, settlement location, and measurement of organic usage across the RWA sector.

That same dynamic is likely to shape how investors interpret growth in tokenized Treasuries and other on-chain issuance categories.

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