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Updated 8 November 2026, 17:00 GMT. Nebius (NBIS) closed Friday 6 November at $129.49, up $9.12 or 7.58 percent (StockAnalysis), recovering less than half of Thursday’s 14.94 percent fall to $120.37. The company reports third-quarter results on Thursday 12 November, before the US open. Verdict: Wall Street expects about $907 million of revenue, 56 percent more than the prior quarter, and the report has to show that the Microsoft worries behind Thursday’s drop have not touched Nebius. Reference levels: $113 below, $154 above.
Key facts
- Friday close: $129.49, up 7.58 percent from $120.37; range $122.62-$136.87 on about 24.5 million shares (StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance). After-hours trading was near $130.95.
- The week: down 16.0 percent from the $154.14 close on 30 October.
- Thursday: down 14.94 percent to $120.37, with an intraday low near $113 (StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance).
- 52-week range: $73.52 to $299.86 (Yahoo Finance). Friday’s close is 56.8 percent below the high.
- Results date: Thursday 12 November before the market opens, with a call at 8:00 a.m. ET (Nebius release, 30 October). Some calendars still show 10 November; the company’s date is the one to use.
- Third-quarter consensus: revenue of about $907 million and a loss of about $0.72 per share (MarketBeat, TradingView).
- Analysts: a “Buy” consensus from 22 analysts, with an average 12-month target of $278.05 and a range of $84 to $410 (StockAnalysis, updated 4 November).
Why the stock fell, and why it bounced
Thursday’s drop followed a Bloomberg report that Microsoft had tightened oversight of data center projects run by neocloud providers, the specialist AI cloud companies it rents capacity from. Nebius was named among them, but the report disclosed no change to its Microsoft contract, worth $17.4 billion over five years and up to $19.4 billion. Our desk set out what Microsoft actually did at other firms in Nebius Stock $120.37: Microsoft Neocloud Oversight.
Friday’s rebound came from a rival’s numbers. After Thursday’s close, IREN said its AI cloud revenue nearly tripled from the prior quarter to $200 million, and that contract pricing rose 11 percent on three-year deals and 12 percent on five-year deals (TIKR). One five-year deal at about $22 million per megawatt falls inside the $20 million to $25 million range Nebius management gave for its August deals. Jefferies strategist Jane Gibbons called Thursday’s sell-off “reactionary” (TIKR). IREN’s report had a warning in it too: it moved its target of more than $4 billion in annualized revenue from year-end to January, after a design change requested by Microsoft. Our IREN page has the details.
What the third quarter has to show
Second-quarter revenue was $582 million, up 454 percent year on year, with adjusted EBITDA of $236 million (GuruFocus, The Next Web). The roughly $907 million consensus for the third quarter means revenue has to grow about 56 percent in three months. Estimates are not tightly grouped: BusinessQuant shows about $928 million, and a Benzinga-compiled figure cited by Tickeron is about $937 million.
The quarter’s revenue may matter less than three other items:
- Full-year guidance: management reaffirmed 2026 revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40 percent in August. The analyst estimate for the year is $3.35 billion (StockAnalysis), near the top of that range.
- Run rate: annualized revenue was $3 billion at the end of June, against a year-end goal of $7 billion to $9 billion. Most of the jump depends on capacity coming online in the second half.
- Spending and funding: the 2026 capital spending plan is $20 billion to $25 billion. In October the company arranged a Citi-led 364-day facility of more than $3.5 billion at Term SOFR plus 2.75 points (Boerse Express). Any comment on the Microsoft relationship will be read closely.
What Wall Street is saying
The $278.05 average target is 114.7 percent above Friday’s close, but it was last updated on 4 November, before Thursday’s fall. The most recent changes point down (StockAnalysis):
- Citi (Tyler Radke): Buy, target cut to $265 from $324 on 4 November.
- Piper Sandler (James Fish): Hold, target cut to $185 from $237 on 21 October.
- Bank of America (Tal Liani): Buy, $310 target reiterated on 22 October.
On valuation, TIKR puts Nebius at 5.4 times forward sales against a five-year average of 10.6 times.
Nebius stock: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | NBIS | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $113 | Results miss or the year-end run-rate goal slips, as IREN’s did, and the Microsoft worries return. | Thursday’s intraday low; about 12.7 percent below $129.49. |
| Base | $120-$142 | Revenue lands near consensus and guidance holds, but investors wait for evidence on capacity timing. | Thursday’s $120.37 close to Wednesday’s $141.52 close. |
| Bull | $154 | A beat, a firm year-end goal and reassurance on Microsoft erase the whole week’s loss. | The $154.14 close on 30 October; about 19.0 percent above $129.49. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s close. Analyst targets are listed separately above. These are reference levels measured from the verified closing price, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- $120.37: Thursday’s close. Holding above it before the report keeps the bounce intact.
- Tuesday 10 November: US October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET (BLS), with December Fed hike odds near 80 percent after the jobs report (GoldSilver, citing CME FedWatch).
- Tuesday’s CoreWeave report: the closest read-across before Nebius’s own numbers.
- Thursday 12 November: Nebius results before the open and the call at 8:00 a.m. ET.
- 17 November: Nvidia’s results, covered on our Nvidia week-ahead page. Nvidia invested $2.0 billion in Nebius in March (TIKR).
Quick take: Nebius closed Friday at $129.49, up 7.58 percent but still down 16 percent on the week. Results on 12 November need to deliver about $907 million of revenue and show the Microsoft contract is unaffected. Expect $120-$142 into the report; $113 needs a miss or a slipped run-rate goal, $154 needs a beat that erases the week.
FAQ
What is the Nebius stock price today?
US markets are closed for the weekend. Nebius closed Friday 6 November at $129.49, up 7.58 percent, and traded near $130.95 after hours (StockAnalysis). Regular trading resumes at 9:30 a.m. ET on Monday.
When does Nebius report earnings?
Nebius reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday 12 November before the market opens, with a call at 8:00 a.m. ET, according to the company’s 30 October release.
What are analysts expecting from Nebius in the third quarter?
Consensus is about $907 million of revenue and a loss of about $0.72 per share (MarketBeat, TradingView). Other estimates run as high as about $937 million.
Why did Nebius stock fall 15 percent?
The 14.94 percent fall on 5 November followed a Bloomberg report that Microsoft had tightened oversight of neocloud data center projects, during a wider AI sell-off. No change to the Nebius contract was disclosed.
What is the Nebius stock price target?
The average 12-month target from 22 analysts is $278.05, with a low of $84 and a high of $410 (StockAnalysis, updated 4 November). Those figures predate Thursday’s fall.
What are the key levels for NBIS?
Support sits at $122.62, $120.37 and the intraday low near $113. Resistance is at $136.87, $141.52 and $154.14 (StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance).
Sources: Nebius release, 30 October (results date and call time); StockAnalysis, 4-8 November (closes, after-hours price, analyst consensus, target changes, full-year estimate); Yahoo Finance, 6 November (daily ranges, volume, 52-week range); MarketBeat, 5 November, and TradingView (third-quarter consensus); BusinessQuant and Tickeron (alternative estimates); TIKR, 6 November (IREN read-across, Jefferies comment, valuation, Nvidia stake); GuruFocus and The Next Web, August (second-quarter results and guidance); Boerse Express, 2 November (Citi facility); Bloomberg via FinanceFeeds, 6 November (Microsoft oversight report); GoldSilver, 6 November (FedWatch odds); Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI schedule).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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